According to Thompson Reuters (via WSJ), same store sales for November 2009 rose a meager 0.5%. The International Council of Shopping Centers reports a 0.3% drop. Considering how bad last November was, these numbers look awful.
While online seems to be showing some very strong growth, offline is having serious problems. And when online only accounts for 6% of overall sales, it’s not enough to save the retail industry.
Here are same store sales year over year data for some major retailers – most of these were taken from this NYTimes article:
Abercrombie & Fitch: -17%
Saks: -26.1%
Children’s Place: -13%
Neiman Marcus: -12.7%
Hot Topic: -11.7%
Dillards: -11%
Macy’s: -6.1%
JCP: -5.9%
Target: -1.5%
Gap: Flat
BJ’s Wholesale Club: +1%
JW Nordstrom: +2.2%
Limited Brands: +3%
Kohls: +3.3%
Costco: +6%
Ross Stores: +8%
TJX Companies: +8%
Again, just another data point or 2.
So what’s going on here? Lot’s of theories:
-It’s just really tough out there for consumers (the usual, starting with high unemployment)
-Consumers were waiting for the deals at the end of November and in December
-Consumers are only buying what’s on sale
-Merchants are doing an amazing job of pushing consumers online and therefore online could end up stronger than anyone imagined
-Warm weather = less sales of winter clothes
With the seemingly stark difference between online and offline growth figures, you’ve got to be bullish on agencies focused on online marketing.
Companies like GSI Commerce, which are enabling the big retailers to succeed online through TrueAction, it’s online marketing division should be cleaning up. Expect search marketing shops and feed management companies to continue to report nice gains and expand into other online marketing channels, raise additional capital, increase M&A activity, and more as we move into 2010.
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